These are tracked over time to form the main graph. The average is a simple average of the three. The areas around the average chart represent the range between the highest and lowest chances for the candidate. The bar at the top is
the current average of the three chances.
Here are some useful links for tracking the 2016 presidential election. This site uses the data from the sites in bold
The truth tracker checks all of the rated statements by the two candidates on Politifact and assigns them a score based on their rating as follows:
Pants On Fire = -4
False = -2
Mostly Flase = -1
Barely True = -0.5
Half True = 1
Mostly True = 2
True = 4
These are added together into a total score which is then divided by the total number of statements rated. This gives a final score where higher is better.
The large jump in scores was from when the script changed to start including half and barely true. Before they weren't counted at all and gave the candidates a score of 0. The change was made to encourage truth. It is also based on the article
here which showed how Barely True was actually the same as Mostly False. Because of it now being fazed out (since 2011) it will
mostly only apply to Hillary Clinton. Because all of them will be very old, I have de-emphasised their importance. It is also because the name will have attracted different ratings because on the emphasis on the "true".
The Half True score was increased from 0 to 1 to reflect its nature as having being better than no statement. This raise meant that Mostly True and True were both raised 1. This accounts for the jump in scores
Freddie's Election Site
What is this site?
During the 2016 presidential election I started tracking the various prediction sites from around the web. This included sites like Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times' Upshot. These would give each candidate
a probability of winning based on polls and their own models. These sites were recorded every hour and the data was saved to a csv which can be downloaded from here.
This site is a visualisation of that data.
The final results of the election were completely at odds with all of the predictions however I believe the data is still valuable and hence I will keep the site up for archiving purposes.